The chief reason why the Met Office has been getting so many forecasts spectacularly wrong, as reported here ad nauseam, is that all its short, medium and long-term forecasts ultimately derive from the same huge computer model, which is programmed to believe in manmade global warming. Hence the fun we’ve all had with those “barbecue summers” when rain never stopped, and “warmer than average” winters, which promptly saw Britain freezing under piles of snow. –Christopher Booker, The Sunday Telegraph, 30 August 2015

In September 2008, the Met Office forecast a trend of mild winters: the following winter turned out to be the coldest for a decade. Then its notorious promise of a ‘barbecue summer’ was followed by unrelenting rain. Last year, it forecast a ‘drier than average’ spring — before another historic deluge that was accompanied by the coldest temperatures for 50 years. Never has the Met Office had more scientists and computing power at its disposal — yet never has it seemed so baffled by the British weather. But there is no paradox. It is precisely the power of this technology in harnessing climate scientists’ assumptions about global warming that has scuppered the Met Office’s predictions — and made it a propagandist for global warming alarmism. It has become an accomplice to a climate change agenda that now affects where and how we travel, the way houses are built, the lights we read by. And its errors are no laughing matter to tourism industry chiefs in Cornwall and the north-west, who say the Met Office’s false warnings of dire summers cost hundreds of millions of pounds in cancelled bookings. –Rupert Darwall, The Spectator, 13 July 2013

Another Bank Holiday, another washout! It was not meant to be like this! Back in 2006, climate genius David Viner told us: Climate change could “dramatically” change the face of British tourism in the next 20 years, with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers, experts say. Research shows that European tourists may choose to holiday in Britain as resorts nearer to home become too hot.Weather changes may provide revival opportunities for northern seaside towns such as Blackpool and put new strains on roads and development in southern coastal resorts, a study in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism said. Academic David Viner, a researcher at the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, produced the report after analysing the work of experts around the globe. “The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages,” the study said. Apparently nobody thought to tell the tourists! –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of PPeople Know That, 31 August 2015

A decade ago, Hurricane Katrina slammed Florida and then the Gulf Coast,  creating a humanitarian catastrophe in New Orleans. While memories of that devastation remain vivid, there would be 16 more named storms before that year was out, more than in an entire typical Atlantic hurricane season. The record level of activity in 2005 exhausted the traditional alphabetic list of names, ushering in Alpha through Zeta. It might seem disasters on the ground would become financial ones for companies that shoulder those risks. But, if anything, the opposite is true. —Spencer Jakab, The Wall Street Journal, 31 August 2015

European Union bureaucrats sank more than £10 million into subsiding television shows last year, it was revealed yesterday. The money went to make programmes promoting the merits of the EU and warning of the dangers of climate change as well as to support popular series that are already highly successful. A number of the subsidised programmes have been seen on British television – and one, The Great European Disaster Movie, was broadcast by the BBC to widespread derision from critics. Other shows backed by Brussels included one in which a climate change activist searches the world for ways to save the planet. –Steve Doughty, Daily Mail, 1 September 2015

1) Another BBQ Summer Fiasco: Met Office Gets It Wrong (Again)
The Daily Telegraph, 31 August 2015

Sarah Knapton

The Met Office admitted that long term forecasts are ‘still in their infancy’ after it emerged parts of the UK had faced the wettest summer ever despite predictions for a dry, hot season

The Met Office has defended its forecast for a hot, dry summer despite some areas looking set to have the most rain since records began.

As summer officially came to a close amid extreme downpours on Monday, the forecaster was left facing questions about why it predicted a ‘drier-than-average’ season even though a strong El Nino climate event was expected.

El Ninos occur in the Pacific every two to seven years as east to west trade winds drop, heating up ocean surface temperature and triggering global weather changes. In May the Met Office said that it ‘wouldn’t expect (El Nino) to be the dominant driver of our weather’ in the summer months.

Yet this weekend Met Office chief scientist Professor Dame Julia Slingo said that the El Nino phenomenon had disturbed weather patterns, which might have been predicted.

“No-one can deny that we have had a pretty disappointing summer with a lot of unsettled weather and only a few warm spells, especially through July and August,” she said.

“Looking back over past El Ninos, you could have expected that a more unsettled summer might be on the cards for the UK.

“Seasonal forecasts for this summer suggested that temperatures and rainfall would be near normal. However, as the season progressed all the leading models around the world failed to capture the signal for unsettled weather over the UK.

“We all know that forecasting months and seasons ahead is still in its infancy and much more research needs to be done.”

Full joke

2) Reminder: Warm Bias – The Met Office’s Disastrous Track Record
Global Warming Policy Forum, 14 June 2013

The Met Office’s temperature forecasts issued in 12 out of the last 13 years have been too warm.  None of the forecasts issued ended up too cold. That makes the errors systemic and significant. — Full post

3) I Wonder Where David Viner Is Holidaying This Summer?
Not A Lot Of People Know That, 31 August 2015

Paul Homewood

Another Bank Holiday, another washout!

It was not meant to be like this!

Back in 2006, climate genius David Viner told us:

Climate change could “dramatically” change the face of British tourism in the next 20 years, with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers, experts say.

Research shows that European tourists may choose to holiday in Britain as resorts nearer to home become too hot.

Weather changes may provide revival opportunities for northern seaside towns such as Blackpool and put new strains on roads and development in southern coastal resorts, a study in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism said.

Academic David Viner, a researcher at the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, produced the report after analysing the work of experts around the globe.

“The likelihood [is] that Mediterranean summers may be too hot for tourists after 2020, as a result of too much heat and water shortages,” the study said.

There were “opportunities for the revival of northern European resorts, including Blackpool, in the next 20 years, as climate change and rising transport costs offer new holiday opportunities,” it said.

http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2006/jul/28/travelnews.uknews.climatechange

Apparently nobody thought to tell the tourists!

Full post & comments

4) Christopher Booker: Met Office Sacked By The BBC – But The Truth Is Even Odder
The Sunday Telegraph, 30 August 2015

Even when the BBC says goodbye to the Met Office, it will still be relying on Met Office data, however wrong

The media were certainly caught out by the shock news that the Met Office has, after 93 years, lost its contract to supply the BBC with its weather forecasts. It should not have taken long to establish that this is because, under an EU directive on public service contracts (2004/18/EC), the BBC is obliged to put its contracts for weather services out to tender. The tender documents were there for all to see on the EU’s TED (Tender Electronic Documents) website.

The preferred bidders, it seems, are Metra, a commercial arm of the New Zealand Met Office, and Meteo, originally launched by a Dutch weather presenter back in 1986, but now headquartered in London as part of a group owned by an equity investment fund.

One odd thing about this new arrangement is that the bulk of the data used by the winning bidder will still have to be supplied by the UK Met Office, derived from its unrivalled network of data sources, ranging from its 330 UK weather stations and 16 weather radars to information from 300 ships, airliners etc, providing 106 million weather observations a day.

Even though the Met Office may have lost its £3 million-a-year BBC contract mainly on grounds of cost (under rules which in fact do not even originate from the EU, but from a higher global level, through the General Agreement on Trade in Services), the BBC’s new provider will still have to pay the Met Office for most of its information.

Also odd is that we have almost been here before. Back in 2010 it was widely reported that the Met Office might be about to lose its BBC contract to the New Zealanders, amid speculation that the BBC was unhappy with the accuracy of its forecasting. Even the Met Office admitted that its global temperature predictions had been wrong in nine of the previous 10 years.

But the chief reason why the Met Office has been getting so many forecasts spectacularly wrong, as reported here ad nauseam, is that all its short, medium and long-term forecasts ultimately derive from the same huge computer model, which is programmed to believe in manmade global warming. Hence the fun we’ve all had with those “barbecue summers” when rain never stopped, and “warmer than average” winters, which promptly saw Britain freezing under piles of snow.

This goes back to the time when the Met Office was headed by that fanatical evangelist for global warming, Sir John Houghton, the man who did more than anyone to set up the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And, of course, no one has shared his enthusiasm more than the BBC, which for years has been one of the Met Office’s most fervent allies in propagandising for the cause. Last Monday this provoked incredulous laughter, when the Today programme’s Justin Webb speculated that one reason for the Met Office losing its contract might have been that it was so “vocal about climate change”, on which Mr Webb normally follows the BBC party line just as faithfully as any of his colleagues.

But the ultimate irony is that, when the BBC’s new weather provider takes over, we shall still apparently have most of the same presenters. Their “visuals” are already provided by Metra. And, above all, virtually all the information behind its forecasts will still come from the Met Office, just as now. So, if the BBC got it wrong in the past, there is little guarantee that we can expect anything more reliable in the future.

Full post & comments

5) Ten Years After Katrina, Insurers Could Use More Calamity
The Wall Street Journal, 31 August 2015

Spencer Jakab

On the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, insurers are suffering from years of calm seas and low rates.

When they have to wheel out the Greek letters, then you know it is bad news.

That is true not only for stormy markets like those of the last several days but stormy weather as well. A decade ago, Hurricane Katrina slammed Florida and then the Gulf Coast, creating a humanitarian catastrophein New Orleans. While memories of that devastation remain vivid, there would be 16 more named storms before that year was out, more than in an entire typical Atlantic hurricane season. The record level of activity in 2005 exhausted the traditional alphabetic list of names, ushering in Alpha through Zeta.

Aside from the human toll, Katrina created a financial one, with $48 billion in insured losses in 2014 dollars. That was double the next closest event, the 2001 terrorist attacks. And 2005 had another hurricane, Wilma, that made the top-10 list of costliest U.S. disasters. The prior year also had two, Hurricanes Charley and Ivan.

It might seem disasters on the ground would become financial ones for companies that shoulder those risks. But, if anything, the opposite is true.

Take Allstate Corp., the largest publicly listed U.S. property and casualty insurer by premiums. In 2004, its operating income increased 16% despite $2 billion in hurricane-related losses. The following year was weaker after $5.7 billion in catastrophe costs, but the company remained profitable.

What happened in 2006, though, in the wake of those two awful years, is that insurers were able to charge a lot more for policies. Allstate made its highest-ever per-share profit.

Full story

6) Surprise: EU Funds TV Climate Propaganda
Daily Mail, 1 September 2015

Steve Doughty

European Union bureaucrats sank more than £10 million into subsiding television shows last year, it was revealed yesterday. The money went to make programmes promoting the merits of the EU and warning of the dangers of climate change as well as to support popular series that are already highly successful.

British taxpayers are thought to have contributed more than £1 million last year to the television subsidies system, part of a £1 billion Brussels ‘Creative Europe’ fund.

The TV spending was unearthed in research by the TaxPayers’ Alliance, which condemned it as a ‘contemptible’ waste of money on vanity projects.

A number of the subsidised programmes have been seen on British television – and one, The Great European Disaster Movie, was broadcast by the BBC to widespread derision from critics.

Other shows backed by Brussels included one in which a climate change activist searches the world for ways to save the planet, a documentary about Barack Obama, a series of the commercially successful The Bridge, likely to be shown by the BBC later this year or next year, and a half-hour episode of Shaun the Sheep.

It has been given £1.06 billion to spend by 2020 to ‘enable the sectors to reach their economic potential, contributing to sustainable growth, jobs, and social cohesion’.

However some of the projects into which it has ploughed money have come under severe criticism.

One, called The Great European Disaster Movie, directed by a journalist who writes for The Guardian and written by the editor of the pro-European Economist magazine, explained to viewers the ‘catastrophic consequences’ if Britain were to leave the EU.

Shown on BBC4 in March, it was intended to star Eddie Izzard but ended up with Angus Deayton as a future traveller finding out how disastrous it had been that the EU had been allowed to break up. One critic described it as ‘patronising and infuriating’.

Another project funded by Brussels was Little Yellow Boots, in which a filmmaker who is concerned about climate change travels with his imaginary great-granddaughter to find a solution.

The ‘character-driven human interest story’ is designed to help us ‘understand some of the unexpected and little thought of consequences of climate change’.

Full story