VAERS Analysis | 13 Dec 2021
For all who have been paying attention, it should be widely known by now that VAERS significantly underreports adverse event data. However, the million dollar question is always–“What is the exact under-reporting factor?” Perhaps there is no way to determine it with foolproof accuracy, but there are previous studies which have estimated it, such as the Lazarus study of 2011. More recently, Kirsch/Rose/Crawford have estimated it at 41x based on comparing anaphylaxis rates published in a study to rates found in VAERS. On the other hand, the CDC “safe and effective” narrative likely either assumes a factor that is actually negative or requires that pretty much any VAERS death is coincidental to vaccination in order to be able to discount 99.98% of deaths in VAERS (remember that they have only admitted to 3 deaths that are causally related to the Covid-19 shots, due to Vaccine-Induced Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia–see page 26 of this).
In this post we will use the CMS data that has been recently revealed, courtesy of Tom Renz and his whistleblower, to come up with another way to approximate the URF for VAERS. Since the CMS system is not a voluntary reporting system, but rather a robust system that tracks medical events for billing and claims purposes, it likely has a better representation of the true number of adverse events related to the Covid injections than a system like VAERS, which is often overlooked, ignored, or even not known to exist by medical professionals. In Mr. Renz’s presentation, he cited CMS data on the slide below (relevant data circled), which shows 52,030 deaths occurring within 14 days of injection in a population of 27,431,845 Medicare beneficiaries. This equates to a death rate of 189 per hundred thousand (or 1,890 per million):
Also note that these are people receiving any dose, not just “fully vaccinated” people with 2 doses.
Since Medicare is only available to the 65+ age group (thought there are a few exceptions which we will consider negligible), we will need to pull data for the same age group out of VAERS. If we do a query on US VAERS reports for the 65+ age range and for deaths within 14 days of the shot, we get 2,369 deaths. To get the total number of people vaccinated with at least one dose in this age group, we need to download the data from this CDC page– https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic:
Once we open the downloaded csv file, we then add together the number of vaccinations shown for both the 65-74 yrs age group and the 75+ yrs age group to come up with 55,949,565.
Finally, we take the deaths and divide by the number of vaccinations (2,369/55,949,565), resulting in a death rate of 42.34 deaths per million. Comparing the CMS death rate of 1,890/million to the VAERS death rate, we see that the ratio is 1,890/42.34, which gives us an Under-Reporting Factor for VAERS of 44.64. This corresponds to a true reporting rate in VAERS of 2.2% of all adverse events.
Seems like a mid 40s URF for VAERS is very good approximation.
If we multiply the current number of deaths in VAERS (as of the 12/10 data release) by our URF, we will get: 887,711 deaths. If we want US deaths only, we will have: 407,831.
Safe and Effective…sure about that?
