Vaccine Study: Monkeypox Post-Vaccine Breakthrough Risk is 1500 Times Greater than General Monkeypox Infection. Before Your Adjust for Demographics. After adjustment, it’s Only 50 Greater

James Lyons-Weiler | 12 Oct 2022

People on this planet have a 0.00076% chance of running into anyone with Monkeypox. Yet, somehow, 90 breakthrough cases were found in a study in Chicago among the vaccinated.

In a study in JAMA, 7,339 people received the JYNNEOS Monkeypox vaccine.

Ninety patients developed monkeypox after vaccination.

Eight of these cases happened more than 28 days following vaccination.

From this, we can calculate the relative risk and the odds ratio of getting Monkeypox following vaccination compared to the baseline for the rest of the world.

World Population: 7.753 Billion

Monkeypox Cases worldwide (start of study): 59,179

Incidence: 59,179 / 7,753,000,000

Study Sample: 7,339

Monkeypox Cases following vaccination: 90

Incidence: 90/7,339

Q:Which is larger? The study incidence or the world (baseline) incidence?

Relative risk ratio (aka incidence rate ratio, or IRR) =

RR = IRR = 1,587

Odds Ratio = 1,606

So, people who are vaccinated in the study are about 1500-1600 times more likely to experience a case of monkeypox.

The study reports that most of the cases in the world occurred in men who have sex with men (same for the study population in Chicago). Worldwide, about 3% of men have had sex with men (that’s about 232,000,000 men). Adjusting the denominator in the “world group” give us a relative risk of 48 and an odds ratio of 47, plus or minus 10 (95% confidence interval).

So, we can conclude that men who have sex with men in Chicago who are vaccinated against Monkeypox on the order of 50 times the risk of having a Monkeypox infection than men who have sex with men who are not vaccinated (RR 47 +/- 10; OR 48 +/- 10).