GWPF | 18 Feb 2015
Greenpeace Activists Banned From Entering India
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has labelled the “anti-petroleum” movement as a growing and violent threat to Canada’s security, raising fears among environmentalists that they face increased surveillance, and possibly worse, under the Harper government’s new terrorism legislation. –Shawn McCarthy, The Globe and Mail, 17 February 2015
Environmental groups in Canada have expressed concern over the nation’s new anti-terrorism laws, after a report from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police reportedly made specific mention of the dangers of green activism. The report, obtained by Greenpeace, said “anti-petrol” environmental advocacy groups pose a threat to Canadian security. — 9 News, 18 February 2015
The Government has so far banned 13 foreign activists of Greenpeace International from entering India including nine from the UK, three from the USA and an Australian national. These activists have been blacklisted as their activities were found to be in violation of visa rules and they were found to be training, motivating and organising Greenpeace India’s activists to create field level protests near thermal plant and coal mine locations, apart from other activities that would damage India’s energy security interests, Ministry of Home Affairs(MHA) has told the Delhi High Court. —The New Indian Express, 18 February 2015
1) Green Activists Growing Security Threat To Canada, Police Warns – The Globe and Mail, 17 February 2015
2) Greenpeace Activists Banned from Entering India – The New Indian Express, 18 February 2015
3) EU Energy Union Document Leaked – The Energy Collective, 18 February 2015
4) BP Energy Outlook: Global Energy Demand To Rise By Almost 40% – Deutsche Welle, 18 February 2015
5) The Sun Has Gone Quiet Again During The Weakest Solar Cycle In More Than A Century – Vencore Weather 17 February 2015
British energy giant BP has estimated that strong demand from Asia will spur steady growth in energy demand over the next two decades despite ongoing oil price volatility. Global energy demand was expected to rise an average of 1.4 percent annually over the next 20 years, or a total of 37 percent from 2013 to 2035, BP said in its Energy Outlook 2035 report released on Tuesday. The report also considered global CO2 emissions to 2035 based on its projections of energy markets and seen against a backdrop of national carbon-related policies. Its projection showed emissions rising by 1 percent a year to 2035, or by 25 percent over the period. —Deutsche Welle, 18 February 2015
The EU Commissioners discussion paper gives a good preview of what we can expect from the ‘Energy Union Framework Strategy’ which is scheduled to be adopted and published by the EU Commission on 25 February. Reading the paper, it is clear that a more appropriate name for this key EU project would be ‘Energy and Climate Union’ or even ‘Climate and Energy Union’. Because the bottom-line of ‘why Europe needs an Energy Union’ is climate, says the EU Commission: ‘Europe has no choice: if it continues on the present path, the unavoidable challenge of shifting to a low-carbon economy will be made harder by the economic, social and environmental costs of having fragmented national energy markets. The Energy Union is the EU’s answer to this challenge.’ —Alice Stollmeyer, 5 February 2015
So, what is “The Way Forward” in the EU Commission’s view? These are actually the most interesting paragraphs in the leaked discussion paper. The ‘energy security’ dimensions that need to be worked on read more like a ‘memorandum of understanding’ with respect to well-known, persistent but often latent issues, than a real actionable strategy. It begs the question of why something will get done this time, given these issues have persisted for at least a decade. –Roman Kilisek, The Energy Collective, 18 February 2015
The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky – has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. For the past 5 days, solar activity has been very low and one measure of solar activity – its X-ray output – has basically flatlined in recent days. Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and today the sun is virtually spotless despite the fact that we are still in what is considered to be its solar maximum phase. –Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather 17 February 2015
1) Green Activists Growing Security Threat To Canada, Police Warns
The Globe and Mail, 17 February 2015
Shawn McCarthy
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has labelled the “anti-petroleum” movement as a growing and violent threat to Canada’s security, raising fears among environmentalists that they face increased surveillance, and possibly worse, under the Harper government’s new terrorism legislation.
In highly charged language that reflects the government’s hostility toward environmental activists, an RCMP intelligence assessment warns that foreign-funded groups are bent on blocking oil sands expansion and pipeline construction, and that the extremists in the movement are willing to resort to violence.
“There is a growing, highly organized and well-financed anti-Canada petroleum movement that consists of peaceful activists, militants and violent extremists who are opposed to society’s reliance on fossil fuels,” concludes the report which is stamped “protected/Canadian eyes only” and is dated Jan. 24, 2014. The report was obtained by Greenpeace.
“If violent environmental extremists engage in unlawful activity, it jeopardizes the health and safety of its participants, the general public and the natural environment.”
The government has tabled Bill C-51, which provides greater power to the security agencies to collect information on and disrupt the activities of suspected terrorist groups. While Prime Minister Stephen Harper has identified the threat as violent extremists motivated by radical Islamic views, the legislation would also expand the ability of government agencies to infiltrate environmental groups on the suspicion that they are promoting civil disobedience or other criminal acts to oppose resource projects.
The legislation identifies “activity that undermines the security of Canada” as anything that interferes with the economic or financial stability of Canada or with the country’s critical infrastructure, though it excludes lawful protest or dissent. And it allows the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service to take measures to reduce what it perceives to be threats to the security of Canada.
2) Greenpeace Activists Banned From Entering India
The New Indian Express, 18 February 2015
NEW DELHI: The Centre has so far banned 13 foreign activists of Greenpeace International from entering India including nine from the UK, three from the USA and an Australian national.
These activists have been blacklisted as their activities were found to be in violation of visa rules and they were found to be training, motivating and organising Greenpeace India’s activists to create field level protests near thermal plant and coal mine locations, apart from other activities that would damage India’s energy security interests, Ministry of Home Affairs(MHA) has told the Delhi High Court.
The MHA on the basis of intelligence inputs has suggested that Greenpeace UK office has keen interest in promoting the growth of Greenpeace India’s ground level protests. Home Ministry has also raised suspicion over the funding pattern of Greenpeace International.
According to the MHA, it had been noted the Netherland-headquartered Greenpeace International was focussing on India’s energy plants in the couple of years.This was believd to be at the behest of foreign interests inimical to the overall national interests of India.
3) EU Energy Union Document Leaked
The Energy Collective, 18 February 2015
Roman Kilisek
Last week, the European Commission held its first orientation debate on the Energy Union in the college of the Commission. “It was the first time that all commissioners together had an in-depth discussion on the issue. And I can tell you that there was very broad agreement on the main features of the future Energy Union, an Energy Union that puts citizens at its core,” the Vice-President for Energy Union Maroš Šefčovič said in his opening speech at the Energy Union Conference in Riga (Latvia).
Thanks to Alice Stollmeyer – an excellent source for the latest transpiring news on EU energy and climate policy in Brussels – who granted access on her website to an internal Commission discussion paper on the Energy Union (dated January 30) leaked to her, we are in a position to catch a glimpse of the preliminary outline of the future EU Energy Union. According to Ms. Stollmeyer, the EU Commission is expected to adopt this ‘Framework Strategy’ on February 25.
The discussion paper starts out explaining why the EU needs an Energy Union and lists a slew of ‘ills’ as they relate to energy procurement in the EU:
“We import 53% of our energy, which makes us the largest energy importer in the world, at a cost of 400 billion euro a year. Many Member States – especially those dependent on a single supplier or a single supply route – remain too vulnerable to supply shocks. 90% of our housing stock is energy inefficient. 94% percent of transport relies on oil products, of which 90% is imported. Collectively, we spend almost €110 bn per year – directly or indirectly – on energy subsidies, often not justified. Our energy infrastructure is ageing, and often not adjusted to the increased production from renewables. There is a need to attract investments, but the current market design and national policies offer insufficient predictability to potential investors. Our internal energy market is far from complete. Energy islands continue to exist and many markets, for instance in South-East Europe, are not properly connected to their neighbours. From 2012 to 2013 post-tax electricity prices for households increased on average 4.4%, while at the same time wholesale prices fell considerably. (…) For European companies, electricity prices are 40% above the US, and gas prices are even three to four times higher than in the US, which impacts the competitiveness of our industry, in particular our energy-intensive industries.”
This extensive list leads to only one conclusion; namely, that “Europe has no choice: if it continues on the present path, the unavoidable challenge of shifting to a low-carbon economy will be made harder by the economic, social and environmental costs of having fragmented national energy markets.” As a consequence, the “move away from a fragmented system characterized by uncoordinated policies based on narrow national interests, leading to national barriers and energy-isolated areas,” is inevitable.
So, what is “The Way Forward” in the Commission’s view? These are actually the most interesting paragraphs in the leaked discussion paper. The ‘energy security’ dimensions that need to be worked on read more like a ‘memorandum of understanding’ with respect to well-known, persistent but often latent issues, than a real actionable strategy. It begs the question of why something will get done this time, given these issues have persisted for at least a decade.
First, it should not come as a surprise that “energy security depends on solidarity and trust between the Member States.” The paper states that “[j]oint approaches in the field of energy can make all parts of the European Union stronger, for instance in case of supply shortages or disruptions.” In general as well as in theory, that makes perfect sense. However, it is not conducive to solidarity if Germany pays effectively lower prices for Russian natural gas – admittedly because of long-term supply contracts – than Eastern European countries.
Furthermore, the paper recognizes that European gas supply needs to be diversified – perhaps modeled along the lines of Northern Europe’s ‘multiple suppliers structure’: “Work on the Southern Gas Corridor must be intensified to enable Central Asian countries to export their gas to Europe. We will equally explore the full potential of liquefied gas, including as a back-up insurance.”
Leaving the project funding part aside, the fact that the Southeastern flank of Europe is very much in geopolitical flux is often underappreciated. Greece is attempting to – at the very least – emancipate itself from Brussels and the EU’s tentacles with regard to Greek post-financial crisis economic policy, which includes stringent labor-market reforms and austerity. Additionally, Turkey’s EU membership has hung in the balance, with Ankara left to ponder its “candidate country” status for over a decade.
4) BP Energy Outlook: Global Energy Demand To Rise By Almost 40%
Deutsche Welle, 18 February 2015
British energy giant BP has estimated that strong demand from Asia will spur steady growth in energy demand over the next two decades despite ongoing oil price volatility. CO² emissions are also set to rise.
Global energy demand was expected to rise an average of 1.4 percent annually over the next 20 years, or a total of 37 percent from 2013 to 2035, BP said in its Energy Outlook 2035 report released on Tuesday.
In the report, BP projects that demand for oil will increase by around 0.8 percent each year to 2035. However, oil demand from advanced economies, grouped in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is expected to drop over the same period. Oil consumption within the OECD peaked in 2005, and by 2035 is projected to fall to “levels not seen since 1986.”
Rising demand is set to come entirely from the non-OECD countries. In two decades, China is likely to have overtaken the US as the largest single consumer of oil globally.
The British energy company also said that the current weakness in the oil market, which was stemming in large part from strong growth in tight oil production in the US, was likely to take several years to work through.
“Today’s turbulence is a return to business as usual,” BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley said in a statement, adding that “continuous change is the norm in our industry.”
Gas rising fast, coal slow
According to BP projections, demand for natural gas will grow fastest of the fossil fuels over the period, increasing by 1.9 percent a year and led by demand from Asia.
Half the increased demand will be met by rising conventional gas production, primarily in Russia and the Middle East, and about a half from shale gas. By 2035, North America, which currently accounts for almost all global shale gas supply, will still produce around three quarters of the total.
Coal had been the fastest growing of the fossil fuels over the past decade, driven by Chinese demand. However over the next 20 years BP instead sees coal as the slowest growing fossil fuel, growing by 0.8 percent a year, marginally slower than oil.
The report said that the change was driven by less energy-intensive growth in China and the impact of regulations on the use of coal in both the US and China, as well as by plentiful supplies of gas that would help squeeze coal out from power generation.
Carbon emissions continue to grow
BP’s Energy Outlook report also considered global CO2 emissions to 2035 based on its projections of energy markets and seen against a backdrop of national carbon-related policies. Its projection showed emissions rising by 1 percent a year to 2035, or by 25 percent over the period
5) The Sun Has Gone Quiet Again During The Weakest Solar Cycle In More Than A Century
Vencore Weather 17 February 2015
Paul Dorian
[Latest solar image with little sunspot activity; courtesy “spaceweather.com”]
Overview
The main driver of all weather and climate, the entity which occupies 99.86% of all of the mass in our solar system, the great ball of fire in the sky – has gone quiet again during what is likely to be the weakest sunspot cycle in more than a century. For the past 5 days, solar activity has been very low and one measure of solar activity – its X-ray output – has basically flatlined in recent days (plot below courtesy NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center). Not since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906 has there been a solar cycle with fewer sunspots. We are currently more than six years into Solar Cycle 24 and today the sun is virtually spotless despite the fact that we are still in what is considered to be its solar maximum phase. Solar cycle 24 began after an unusually deep solar minimum that lasted from 2007 to 2009 which included more spotless days on the sun compared to any minimum in almost a century.
Solar maximum
There was an uptick in the number of sunspots in April 2014 which produced a second peak during solar cycle 24 and it is looking increasingly likely that this will be considered the solar maximum point for this particular cycle (figure below courtesy NASA). Many solar cycles are double peaked; however, this is the first one in which the second peak in sunspot number was larger than the first peak which occurred in February 2012. Going back to 1755, there have been only a few solar cycles in the previous 23 that have had a lower number of sunspots during its maximum phase.
Consequences of a weak solar cycle
First, the weak solar cycle has resulted in rather benign “space weather” in recent times with generally weaker-than-normal geomagnetic storms. By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geoeffective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet. However, while a weak solar cycle does suggest strong solar storms will occur less often than during stronger and more active cycles, it does not rule them out entirely. In fact, the famous Carrington Event of 1859 occurred during a weak solar cycle (#10) [http://thesiweather.com/2014/09/02/300-pm-the-carrington-event-of-1859-a-solar-superstorm-that-took-places-155-years-ago/].
In addition, there is some evidence that most large events such as strong solar flares and significant geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle. In other words, there is still a chance for significant solar activity in the months and years ahead.
Second, it is pretty well understood that solar activity has a direct impact on temperatures at very high altitudes in a part of the Earth’s atmosphere called the thermosphere. This is the biggest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere which lies directly above the mesosphere and below the exosphere. Thermospheric temperatures increase with altitude due to absorption of highly energetic solar radiation and are highly dependent on solar activity.
Finally, if history is a guide, it is safe to say that weak solar activity for a prolonged period of time can have a negative impact on global temperatures in the troposphere which is the bottom-most layer of Earth’s atmosphere – and where we all live. There have been two notable historical periods with decades-long episodes of low solar activity. The first period is known as the “Maunder Minimum”, named after the solar astronomer Edward Maunder, and it lasted from around 1645 to 1715. The second one is referred to as the “Dalton Minimum”, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, and it lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Both of these historical periods coincided with below-normal global temperatures in an era now referred to by many as the “Little Ice Age”. In addition, research studies in just the past couple of decades have found a complicated relationship between solar activity, cosmic rays, and clouds on Earth. This research suggests that in times of low solar activity where solar winds are typically weak; more cosmic rays reach the Earth’s atmosphere which, in turn, has been found to lead to an increase in certain types of clouds that can act to cool the Earth.
