The Guardian | 25 Nov 2015
151% rise in excess winter deaths in England and Wales represents the biggest yearly increase since records began
There were an estimated 43,900 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2014-15, a 15-year high attributed partly to the lack of effectiveness of last year’s flu vaccine.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show that the number of excess winter deaths was 151% higher than in 2013-14, representing the biggest yearly increase since records began.
The excess winter mortality measure compares the number of deaths in December to March with those in the rest of the year.
The average temperature last winter was 4.8C – 1.4C lower than in 2014-15 – but there have been lower averages in five out of the past 10 years.
Claudia Wells, at the ONS, said the rise in deaths could be attributed to problems with the flu vaccine last year, which were caused by a mismatch between the strain used to make the vaccine and that which emerged as the main threat.
“What we saw is at the beginning of the winter, the flu vaccine was quoted to have quite a low effectiveness, between 3% or 4%. By the end of the period it was quoted at 34% but that is still below what we would expect, which is at least 50% effectiveness.
“It [flu] was associated with more deaths than we expected. As it wasn’t a particularly cold winter we do think it was probably down to ineffectiveness of the flu vaccine.”
Elderly people, individuals with low incomes (up to 9 million Britons live in fuel poverty), those with mental health problems, babies and children under five, and pregnant women are considered vulnerable when the outside temperature drops below 6°C.
The majority of deaths (36,300) occurred among people aged 75 and over and respiratory diseases were the underlying cause of death in more than a third of cases. Circulatory diseases caused almost a quarter of all excess winter deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease were responsible for more excess winter deaths (9,100) than ever before.
The ONS wrote: “The reasons for the seasonal pattern in deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease are not clear. However, it may be related to the greater vulnerability of people with these conditions to respiratory diseases, difficulties with self-care and falls, all of which may be more important in winter months.”
As in previous years, there were more excess winter deaths in females than in males. Male excess winter deaths increased from 7,210 to 18,400, and female deaths from 10,250 to 25,500 between 2013-14 and 2014-15.
Janet Morrison, the chief executive of the older people’s charity Independent Age, described the figures as shocking. She said: “Even discounting the impact of the flu, the figures are still far higher than in previous years.”
“Councils, the government and energy companies need to help with things like insulating homes and assistance with energy bills for vulnerable customers. But there are also simple things we can all do like checking on our frail and elderly family and neighbours in cold weather. And making sure they are able to take up their flu vaccination, wrap up warm and eat well.”
At midday on Wednesday, National Pensioners Convention members will highlight the scale of winter deaths among the country’s older population by releasing one black balloon for every 1,000 people who died last winter from cold-related illnesses. The demonstration will take place at Westminster.
New NHS guidelines published in March said that plumbers, heating engineers and meter installers should alert the authorities when they visited a “dangerously cold home” in order to help reduce the toll of winter deaths.
The excess winter mortality index was highest in the south-west in 2014-15 and joint lowest in Yorkshire and the Humber, and Wales.
A Department of Health spokeswoman said: “Excess winter deaths can be due to a number of causes including cold snaps, flu and other respiratory infections.
“Flu is serious, causing severe illness and deaths in winter. It is vital that older people, pregnant women and those with a health condition get their flu jab this winter.
“Our cold weather plan sets out a series of actions that health and social care organisations, voluntary groups, and individuals can take to plan for cold temperatures and help reduce cold-related illnesses and deaths.”
