Igor Chudov | 17 Dec 2022
But they work great in the USA, right?
This is a brief post based on the latest UKHSA vaccine effectiveness report.
Do Covid vaccines help vaccinated people avoid hospitalization? Two tables from two UKHSA reports shed light on this question — and the answer is — the Covid vaccines are NOT OF ANY HELP in preventing hospitalizations.
Table 12 from Week 48 report:
Now look at vaccine uptake from Week 16 report (the chart was discontinued):
A summary of the data is here:
You can see that roughly, the percentage of vaccinated hospitalizations closely matches the vaccinated share of the population, stratified by age. This includes a very small minority of people who were vaccinated once. Those people usually are vaccine injured and cannot proceed to their second dose. Excluding them would be unfair. However, if we did exclude them, the outcome would not principally change as the once-vaccinated are a very small minority of the population and hospital admissions.
Note that the exact calculation of VE is very sensitive to inputs because the unvaccinated population is very small. I decided not to cite the exact VE numbers other than to make an obvious point that the VE is negative.
The “vaccinated population” includes many boosted people with recent doses. And yet, vaccines have no protective effect against hospitalization at best and a negative effect at worst.
This data IS stratified by age, so “age confounding” is eliminated.
Such is the ignominious outcome of the UK’s vaccination program. The only thing that makes the UK unique is its more honest and comprehensive statistical reporting. The vaccines failed worldwide, not just in the UK.
Boosters Work for Less than Three Months, Then Make Things Worse
Look at page 49 of the week 48 report:
The data is outright strange, and I cannot explain it. Look at the scared face above. The chart shows a weird INCREASE in hospitalizations within the first three months of boosters for 40-49-year-olds. UKHSA explains it by saying that it could be a random result of having too few cases. Okay.
Now, look at the question emoji above. The charts for 50-year-olds and older are very strange. They show inexplicable jumps in hospitalization rates right past three months after booster doses that then decline. It is NOT compatible with the usual story of “vaccine waning.”
It speaks ill of vaccines — but what does it tell us? I cannot figure it out, and I hope you weigh in. How can you explain this chart? What do the boosters do to people that make them MORE likely to be hospitalized with Covid past three months after boosters?
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